Latest poll: Obama, Clinton split Ohio, Texas

The Democratic Party presidential primaries in Texas and Ohio remain too close to call between Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York and Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, with momentum sloshing back and forth, a new Zogby International poll for Reuters/C-SPAN/Houston Chronicle two-day telephone tracking poll shows.

As citizens in these two big states prepare to vote Tuesday, neither candidate has been able to break away from the other. These two delegate-rich states are among the last of the big states left in the primary election season, and both candidates stand to split the delegates under the partys proportional delegate apportionment scheme.

The telephone surveys also show Republican front-runner Sen. John McCain of Arizona moving two steps closer to sealing the GOP nomination, as he continues to enjoy a sizable lead over closest challenger Mike Huckabee of Arkansas.

In the Democratic race in Texas, Clinton and Obama saw stability set in among the key demographic groups. Obama leads among men, and the two are essentially tied among women. Clinton continues to enjoy a sizable lead among Hispanic voters, but Obama has made gains in the last day among white voters, where the two are now tied.

Obama continues to enjoy a two-to-one lead among voters under age 30, while Clinton leads 54 percent to 31 percent among voters age 65 and older. Obama continues to lead in the Dallas and Houston areas, while Clinton leads in more rural areas, including southern Texas. But in the key swing area of east Texas, Obama has surged into a tie with Clinton. While he trailed her 45 percent to 38 percent just a day ago, it was Obama 45 percent, Clinton 44 percent in that area at the end of Saturday's polling, but the numbers in that region have been volatile.

In Ohio, there is very little movement as the Democratic candidates have solidified their support among those groups that have come to be familiar supporters of each. Obama leads Clinton among men by a 54 percent to 39 percent margin, while Clinton leads Obama among women by a 51 percent to 42 percent edge. The Obama increase in support among men is likely what has moved him ahead of Clinton.

Obama continues to lead among Ohio voters under age 50, while Clinton remains strongest among voters over age 50. Clinton leads in the rural areas of Ohio and in Cincinnati, while Obama leads in the Democratic bastion of Cleveland and the state capital of Columbus.

In the GOP races, McCain continues to enjoy a big lead in each state, though Huckabee continues to enjoy solid support as the conservative alternative. Among evangelicals in Texas, he leads McCain, 45 percent to 44 percent. Among the very conservative, Huckabee leads, 48 percent to 41 percent, but this represents a gain for McCain.

Among mainline conservatives in Texas, McCain led Huckabee by a 60 percent to 33 percent margin. McCain leads 69 percent to 13 percent among GOP moderates in Texas. In Ohio, McCain appears to be winning over more of the conservative bloc, as he leads Huckabee 66 percent to 27 percent among mainline conservatives. Huckabee leads among Ohios very conservative, 48 percent to 39 percent. McCain leads 68 percent to 23 percent among Ohio moderates. Huckabee does better in the conservative southern tier of Ohio south of I-70, which runs through mid-Ohio and downtown Columbus. McCain is better off in the moderate northern tier.

"The Democratic race has been neck-and-neck in both states, but it has been interesting to watch the volatility under way among Democrats in eastern Texas, which is the swing area of that state," pollster John Zogby said. "There, one day Clinton would be leading, and the next, Obama would have the edge. Whoever wins east Texas on the Democratic side will win the state. But still, it is important to remember that, because Obama holds huge leads in the Dallas area and in Houston, even if he were to lose the state, the split of delegates will be roughly even between he and Clinton."

The Democratic Party survey in Ohio included 761 likely voters and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points. The Texas survey of Democrats included 748 likely voters and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. Both surveys were conducted Feb. 29 to March 2.

The Republican survey in Ohio included 674 likely voters, and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points. The Texas survey of Republicans included 628 likely voters, and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.0 percentage points. Both surveys were conducted Feb. 29 to March 2. Percentages in charts may not equal 100 percent due to rounding.

The surveys were all conducted using live English- and Spanish-speaking telephone operators working in Zogby’s call center in upstate New York.

Source:www.naplesnews.com/news/2008/mar/03/late st-poll-obama-clinton-spl it-ohio-texas/ 

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